NFL 2005 Conference Championship Predictions

Before talking about this week's games, I want to talk a bit about Peyton Manning. After yet another premature departure from the playoffs, the questions about Manning's ability to win it all will come up again. Those are legitimate questions. There is no question that Manning is a great quarterback. But come playoff time, teams and players have to raise their game up a notch or two. Not all talented players can do that. This is why I would build a team around Tom Brady before Peyton Manning, and consider Brady the better quarterback. Brady has proven that he can raise his game, Manning has not. Now, one will point out that Brady lost this year. Obviously, but everybody loses sometime. If Brady never wins another playoff game, he's still proven himself more than any active QB in the league. Manning has yet to do so. And the losses quite often are on his shoulder. Brady had a bad game. Manning has yet to prove he can play a good game at this level.

The Patriots have created the blueprint on how to beat Manning. And I think part of the reason that blueprint works is psychological. Manning does not come across to me like a cocky or arrogant player. He's out to win, not put up big stats. In last year's run for the TD passing record, he said many times that if defenses were going to just sell out to defend the pass, he would just hand off and go home a winner. I believe him. But the Patriot blueprint has an element of defiance in it, as if the team is taunting Manning. "We're so not scared of you, we're going to blitz you to death and toss you around some. We dare you try to beat us with your passing. Go ahead, make our day." And like some petulant child, Peyton gets suckered in, tries to force plays downfield, and makes mistakes. (Brett Favre has the same flaw, especially as he gets older. Look at the 2001 playoff game with the Rams. With every interception he threw, he just tried that much harder to force throws, resulting in more interceptions.)

Manning blames "protection problems" on the loss. Well, yeah. They stubbornly kept their three wide receiver packages out there, with five offensive linemen and maybe a running back to block seven pass rushers. Rather than adapting (that's my theme of the playoffs, I guess: adaptability) to what the Steelers (and before them, the Chargers and, of course, the Patriots) were doing to them, they kept trying to do their thing. Can you imagine Brady doing that? No way. The Patriots would have started running and endless stream of screen passes and short crossing hot routes to take advantage of what the Steelers were doing.

Now, one may blame the offensive coordinator rather than Manning. On most teams, that would probably be true. But you have to wonder about who is really in control in Indy. Think about the famous moment in the Steeler game when Manning waved off the punt team to go for it on 4th down. That's an example of Manning overriding his head coach on a question of game strategy. Zimmerman talks about the last Colt drive of the game. At second down on the Steeler 28, which is a long field goal attempt, the sound strategy is to take some shorter passes to move the ball into position for a short, comfortable field goal. One has to believe the Colt coaching staff was calling for just that. What's Manning do? Override them again and go twice for the kill shot, missing both times. Going for the kill shot was Manning's attempt at giving the finger to the Steelers after what they had done to him all day.

Until Manning learns to control that part of his personality, teams like Pittsburgh and New England will continue to bait him into the mistakes that will cost the Colts big games. He will continue to come up short when it really matters.

Now, onto this week....

Steelers @ Broncos
I've struggled with this pick all week. Not that I couldn't make the pick. Rather, I couldn't believe the pick I was coming up with and was trying very hard to go the other way. I really want to pick Denver. They are at home, they are the second seed in the conference, and the 6th seed has never gone to a Super Bowl (of course, that's because the 6th seed has never made the conference title game, so historical precedent can be thrown out). But every time I look at the game, I end up with Pittsburgh. Why?

Experience for one thing. Pittsburgh has been to this level many times, with every key player on the roster having at least one conference title game appearance, and many with several. Obviously, they've lost those games, but they have been there. Denver hasn't, and few players on the roster have.

The Steelers have played outstanding football for well over a month. They have played very well in both postseason games this year. Denver did not acquit itself well last week. They did not beat New England. The Patriots beat themselves with unforced turnovers. (You can't credit Denver with the turnovers because they didn't force the turnovers. The Patriots just screwed up.) More generally, the Broncos have not played well in the postseason since Elway left. The last two years, Indy blew them away. This year New England could have blown them away. Pittsburgh is hot, Denver is lucky. The Broncos did win 13 games this year, so obviously they are a capable team. But, like I said before, you have to raise the level of your game in the postseason, so those 13 wins are not all that meaningful.

New England did a good job defensively, limiting Denver to 286 total yards of offense, with slightly less than 100 yards from the vaunted running game. Let's face it, Denver had two one yard TD drives (one on the Bailey return, the other on the questionable Samuel interference call which put the ball on the 1). Alright, that second one wasn't really a one yard drive, but all but one yard came on the interference penalty. Pittsburgh's defense can do pretty much the same thing New England did. They will take away the Bronco running game, and force Plummer to beat them.

On the other hand, the Denver defense did a pretty poor job, giving up 420 yards. If New England hadn't bungled the game so badly, it would have been a lot more. Roethlisberger showed last week he can dazzle with the passing game, too. So the Steelers should be able to put up some good numbers on offense. Besides, the Steeler offensive line is very familiar with the Bronco defensive line, since they were all in Cleveland last year and faced Pittsburgh twice. The Steeler line knows how to open the holes against them for the running game.

Every time I look at it, the Steelers come out on top in just about every comparison. Defense, running game, passing game. All favor Pittsburgh. The only knock I can come up with is that Cowher has a well known history of losing these games. But the past does not dictate the future, and Cowher has never had a team with the potency of this one. He's had better defenses before, but never an offense this good. So, there we have it. Prediction: Steelers.

Panthers @ Seahawks
I predicted this matchup at mid-season, and went with Carolina then to win. Am I going to stick with that? I cannot. This game seems much easier to pick than the AFC game. The Panthers are hurting. As I wrote earlier, the win over Chicago was costly. DeShaun Foster is out, Julius Peppers hurt his shoulder and has missed practice this week, just to name two big ones. With both teams at full strength, this would be a very tough game. But with Seattle healthy on both sides of the ball, they have the advantage over Carolina. Not necessarily a huge advantage, but an advantage nonetheless. The Panthers still have a strong defense, even with Peppers out or at half speed. But Seattle does too. The Panthers still have a strong running game with Goings. But Seattle does too, and it's better.

The one thing that gives me pause in this prediction is Steve Smith. Chicago has a fantastic defense. They knew Delhomme was going to Smith as often as possible. And Smith still got open time and time again. If Chicago couldn't stop him, will Seattle?

In the AFC analysis, I mentioned experience. Clearly that factor goes Carolina's way in this game. They were in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, and many of the players on today's team were on that team as well. Seattle has fewer players who have played in a game of this magnitude. I do believe experience is a factor, but only one of many.

Carolina will definitely make a go of it. They are a very good team, very well coached, and they play well on the road. They are in the same spot they were 2 years ago, playing on the road against the top seed. But Seattle is not Philadelphia. The Seahawks will be able to make a few more plays than Carolina will, and that will be the difference. Prediction: Seahawks.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 7-1